Resolving Questions

After the forecasting period ends, questions can be resolved to record the actual outcome. Resolving a question closes it for new forecasts and enables accuracy metrics that compare the consensus to the real result.

Resolving a Question

When a question’s forecasting period ends, its status changes to “Pending Resolution.” To resolve it:

  1. Navigate to the question and open the resolution form
  2. Select the correct answer from the list of possible answers
  3. Enter the date and time when the answer became known (this must be in the past)
  4. Provide resolution details explaining the outcome and any relevant notes
  5. Submit the resolution

If you have approval permissions, the resolution takes effect immediately. Otherwise, it is submitted for approval by someone with the appropriate permissions.

Multiple-Outcome Questions

A multiple-outcome question resolves one option at a time. In place of a single correct answer, the form asks what happened to each option and offers Occurred, Did not occur, or Leave open. Decide the options you can decide now and leave the rest, and a later resolution settles them. The question moves to “Resolved” when its last option is settled.

What a Resolved Question Shows

Once resolved, the question page displays:

  • The correct answer highlighted prominently. On a multiple-outcome question, an Outcome block instead lists every option with its own occurred or did-not-occur mark.
  • The resolution details and date
  • The final forecast probability at the time of resolution
  • Forecast accuracy metrics comparing the consensus to the actual outcome
  • A trend graph showing how the forecast evolved relative to the final answer

Unresolving a Question

If a resolution was entered in error, administrators can unresolve the question, reverting it to the “Pending Resolution” state.

On a multiple-outcome question, unresolving reopens every option settled so far. Reopen outcomes on a single resolution reopens only the options that resolution decided. Both actions are available from the first option settled, before the question as a whole has resolved.